Are Shark Risks Increasing?

At FADER, we’ve always chosen to refrain from capitalising on tragic events such as shark attacks. Our hearts are with the surfer recently attacked, and we acknowledge the emotional toll these incidents have on local communities and victims’ families.

Still, every time an attack occurs—rare as they are—it raises important questions: Why there? Why now? And is the risk increasing?

Take Port Macquarie, for instance, where several serious incidents have occurred. Yet in areas like Stockton to Seal Rocks, where shark numbers are actually higher, near-misses are more common than actual attacks. The reasons are complex—and rarely due to a single factor.

Understanding Shark Risk Factors

Like car accidents, shark attacks tend to happen when multiple contributing elements align. Higher-risk scenarios typically involve:

• River mouths and estuaries

• Schools of baitfish or high fish activity

• Nearby fishing operations (including drumlines)

• Low visibility conditions—such as murky or low light water

One of the best things surfers can do is stay informed about their local conditions. That includes choosing gear that helps minimise visibility in the water. At FADER, we’ve even postponed dives at Seal Rocks when these risk factors were elevated. A common overlooked element? The visual contrast surfers create. A black wetsuit on a white board is highly visible to predators, whereas a camouflage design blends more naturally.

Is the Risk of Shark Attacks Increasing?

Recently, we’ve been asked this more than ever. While we avoid any kind of fearmongering, we do believe this winter may carry a higher risk due to three key factors:

1. Whale Population Growth

Humpback whale numbers are increasing at an estimated 10% annually, with around 10,000–11,000 now migrating. This also means more natural whale deaths from injury, illness, or entanglement. Decaying whale carcasses attract sharks, especially great whites.

Unfortunately, current beach management policies often bury whale carcasses onshore, releasing scent into the water and drawing sharks in closer. A better strategy? Tow the carcasses offshore, where sharks can feed without increasing coastal risk.

2. Growing Seal Populations

Seal colonies are booming in areas like Cabbage Tree Island, where you’ll now find 20–30 regular residents—compared to virtually none decades ago. Juvenile white sharks feed mostly on fish, but once they reach 3–3.5m in length, they begin testing new prey types—including seals.

The danger here? Surfers in black wetsuits floating on boards closely resemble seals from below. Once a shark successfully hunts a seal, it tends to look for similar shapes again. The solution is simple: don’t look like a seal.

3. Food Supply Variability

Shark presence is strongly linked to the availability of prey—especially Australian salmon. The post-2000 boom in juvenile white sharks likely stems from higher survival rates due to stable food sources. But when salmon schools dwindle, sharks begin to roam.

That’s why:

• Newcastle sees less sharks—there are fewer bait schools.

• Stockton, Hawks Nest, and Mungo attract more sharks—thanks to salmon abundance.

• Port Stephens has relatively few serious attacks—well-fed sharks are less likely to investigate surfers.

When food supplies collapse, sharks migrate in search of it—sometimes ending up in warmer waters like Ballina, where their journey stalls. That’s exactly what led to the 2015–16 cluster of attacks there: too many sharks, too little food, too many humans.

So, What Actually Works?

Current safety strategies are often outdated or ineffective:

• Beach meshing harms marine life and offers limited protection.

• Helicopter patrols are inconsistent.

• Smart drumlines may draw sharks closer instead of repelling them.

More effective, modern approaches include:

• Real-time observation via shark towers and drones

• Public awareness about shark behaviour and local conditions

• Low-visibility gear like camouflage wetsuits, which may reduce detection risk

Our Perspective

After 30 years diving with sharks, 15 years of dedicated study, and a decade focusing on great whites in shallow water, we’ve learned this: if a shark doesn’t see you, it’s unlikely to strike.

This is why we’ve poured our research, design knowledge, and passion into developing wetsuits that help surfers stay more concealed in the water. Our camouflage patterns are designed to reduce visibility and blend into the natural underwater environment—an added layer of protection in a world where awareness is key.

This winter may carry a higher risk—but knowledge is power, and smart gear choices can make all the difference.

Stay smart. Stay camouflaged. Stay safe.

—The FADER Team